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Oscar Jorda and Travis Berge: Economics recovery began in July 2009

Research by Oscar Jorda (Professor) and Travis Berge (graduate student) in the Department of Economics finds that economic recovery in the U.S. began in July 2009. This is part of a larger research project evaluating the official dating of business cycles by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The official NBER dating is done with a long lag – if indeed the NBER finds that the recession ended in July 2009 it will not officially determine that fact and announce it until well into 2010. The research by Jorda and Berge proposes a faster method for dating the business cycle turning points. A summary of the research is given on James Hamilton’s popular blog ; see Econbrowser. The paper is available at paper.