UC Davis

Spring 2008

Economics 210C

The Evolution of the World Economy

Alan M. Taylor

amtaylor@ucdavis.edu

http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/amtaylor/

(530) 754-7464

COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course is intended for graduate students. A familiarity with some basic concepts of international trade and finance will be useful. The course aims to provide an understanding of the evolution of the world economy since about 1800--a period which, more than any other, saw a rapid growth in the size and scope of trade, finance, migration and other forms of market integration on a global scale, and, as such, shaped the world economy as we know it today. A knowledge of the history of the world economy over this period helps us better understand today’s world economy--debates, controversies, tensions, income distribution, patterns of trade and finance, and sources of growth and instability. The course is organized chronologically, dealing with three major epochs in international economic relations: the “long nineteenth century” up to 1913, the interwar period, and the post-World War II period. Crudely, these may be classified as periods of integration, disintegration and reintegration, respectively. In each period we examine major developments in trade and commercial policy, payments and monetary systems, capital movements and labor migration, and relate these to the record of economic development.

INFORMATION

Readings Readings marked * should be read prior to the lecture to facilitate a lively and productive discussion. Indeed, you may be asked to summarize said readings in class. The reading list is long, and you are not expected to read every part of every single element. However, reading broadly is desirable. Learn to skim readings for their pertinent findings (examine introductions and conclusions for pointers to the discussion) and significant empirical contributions (examine tables and figures) until you know what argument is being made. BOTTOM LINE: Can you replicate the argument?

Grading Paper 75%, Presentation 25%

Paper As regards layout, the main text should be 20—25 pages in length, set in 12 point and double spaced with standard margins (one inch), with notes and bibliography using proper annotation and attribution. Consult a style manual if necessary (say, The Chicago Style Manual). A major element will be finding a suitable topic. You should consult with the instructor. To ensure that you are making progress towards finding a paper topic, a one-page proposal summarizing your topic is due by May 1. But please meet with me frequently before and after May 1 for advice and feedback.

Access to readings Most articles are available online (via the search engines) at:

• University Library (ejournals) http://www.lib.ucdavis.edu/ul/research/ejournals/
• National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) http://papers.nber.org/papers.html

Access to some sites is restricted, but is available from the UC Davis domain. Some other articles have a specific URL and are open-access. Remaining articles marked ® will be placed on reserve at the department. Not all books will be placed on reserve.

SYLLABUS

Readings You should do all the assigned reading for the course, and readings marked * should be read prior to the lecture to facilitate a lively and productive discussion. Indeed, you may be asked to summarize said readings in class.

1 Introduction: where are we coming from?

Lewis, W. Arthur. The Evolution of the International Economic Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977. Chs. 1-4.

Jones, Eric L. The European Miracle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. http://books.google.com/books?id=HYVJSGi-xjQC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_summary_r

Mokyr, J. The Lever of Riches. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. http://books.google.com/books?id=zo_8L4lT1z0C&printsec=frontcover

Pomeranz, Kenneth. The Great Divergence: Europe, China, and the Making of the Modern World Economy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2000.

*Allen, Robert C., Jean-Pascal Bassino, Debin Ma, Christine Moll-Murata, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. 2005. Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738-1925. UC Davis GPIH Working Paper No. 1, Version: October 2005. http://gpih.ucdavis.edu/files/Allen_et_al.pdf

*Findlay, Ronald, and Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2007. Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Preface. http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8493.html

Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson. The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth. MIT, 2002. Photocopy. http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~ec2339/Papers/Acemoglu.pdf

2 1820-1913: growth, trends and fluctuations

*Abramovitz, M. “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind.” Journal of Economic History 46 (June 1986): 385-406. ejournals

*Baumol, W. “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show.” American Economic Review 76 (December 1986): 1072-85. ejournals

Prados de la Escosura, Leandro. “International Comparisons of Real Product, 1820—1990: An Alternative Data Set.” Explorations in Economic History 37 (2000): 1—41. ejournals

*Williamson, J. G. “Globalization, Convergence, and History.” Journal of Economic History 56 (June 1996). ejournals

Crafts, N. F. R. “Exogenous or Endogenous Growth? The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered.” Journal of Economic History 55 (1995): 745-72. ejournals

*Taylor, Alan M. “Sources of Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century.” European Economic Review 43 (1999): 1621—45. ejournals

3 1820-1913: technology

Allen, R. C. “International Competition in Iron and Steel, 1850-1913.” Journal of Economic History 39 (1979): 911-37. ejournals

*Clark, Gregory. “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed? Lessons from the Cotton Mills.” Journal of Economic History 47 (March 1987): 141-73. ejournals

*Wright, Gavin. “The Origins of American Industrial Success, 1879-1940.” American Economic Review 80 (September 1990): 651-68. ejournals

*Matsuyama, Kiminori. “Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Theory 58 (1992): 317—34. ejournals

Temin, Peter. “Two Views of the British Industrial Revolution.” Journal of Economic History 57, no. 1 (1997): 63–82. ejournals

Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. “Living Standards during the Industrial Revolution: An Economist’s Guide.” American Economic Review vol. 93(2), pages 221-226, May. ejournals

Clark, Gregory. 2003. The Great Escape: The Industrial Revolution in Theory and History. UC Davis. Photocopy. http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/IR2003.pdf

4 1820-1913: international payments and the rise of the gold standard

*Officer, Lawrence. “Gold Standard”. EH.Net Encyclopedia, edited by Robert Whaples. October 1, 2001. http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/officer.gold.standard

Hume, David. “Of the Balance of Trade.” In Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary, Eugene F. Miller, ed. Liberty Fund, Inc. 1742 [1987]. http://www.econlib.org/library/LFBooks/Hume/hmMPL28.html

Scammell, W. M. “The Working of the Gold Standard.” Yorkshire Bulletin of Economic and Social. Research, Vol. 16, 1965, pp. 32–45. ejournals

McCloskey, D. N., and J. R. Zecher. “How the Gold Standard Worked, 1880-1913.” In The Gold Standard in Theory and History, edited by B. Eichengreen. New York: Methuen, 1985. http://books.google.com/books?id=R66Ctakwm8QC&pg=PR3&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=0_1&sig=8ggw_RbaX1RMKUlltbgYEP05Xu0#PPA57,M1

*Canjels, Eugene, Gauri Prakash-Canjels, and Alan M. Taylor, 2004. “Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 86(4), pages 868-882, 05. ejournals

*Meissner, Christopher M., 2005. “A new world order: explaining the international diffusion of the gold standard, 1870-1913,” Journal of International Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 385-406, July. ejournals

*Taylor, Alan M. 2002. “A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February. ejournals

5 1820-1913: capital movements

Edelstein, Michael. Overseas Investment in the Age of High Imperialism. New York: Columbia University Press, 1982. Chs. 1, 2 and 7. ®

Neal, Larry. “Integration of International Capital Markets: Quantitative Evidence from the Eighteenth to Twentieth Centuries.” Journal of Economic History 50 (June 1985): 219-26. ejournals

Fishlow, Albert, 1985. “Lessons from the Past: Capital Markets during the 19th Century and the Interwar Period,” International Organization, vol. 39(3), pages 383-439, Summer. ejournals

*Taylor, Alan M., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer.” Journal of Political Economy 102 (April 1994): 348-71. ejournals

Bordo, Michael D., and Hugh Rockoff. “The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”.” Journal of Economic History 56, no. 2 (1996): 389–428. ejournals

*Obstfeld, Maurice, and Alan M. Taylor, 2003. “Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31,” Economic Journal, vol. 113(487), pages 241-275, 04. ejournals

* Clemens, Michael A. & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. “Wealth bias in the first global capital market boom, 1870-1913,” Economic Journal, vol. 114(495), pages 304-337, 04. ejournals

*Schularick, Moritz, 2006. “A tale of two ‘globalizations’: capital flows from rich to poor in two eras of global finance,” International Journal of Finance & Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 339-354. ejournals

6 1820-1913: migration

Easterlin, Richard. “Influences in European Overseas Emigration Before World War One.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 9 (1961): 331-51. ejournals

*Hatton, Timothy J., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “What Drove the Mass Migrations from Europe in the Late Nineteenth Century?” Population and Development Review 20 (September 1994): 533-59. ejournals

*Gráda, Cormac Ó, and Kevin H. O’Rourke. 1997. Migration as Disaster Relief: Lessons from The Great Irish Famine. European Review of Economic History 1 (1): 3–25. ejournals

*Taylor, Alan M., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Convergence in the Age of Mass Migration.” European Review of Economic History 1 (1997): 27—63. ejournals

Foreman-Peck, James. “A Political Economy of International Migration, 1815-1914.” Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 60 (December 1992): 359-76. ®

Goldin, Claudia D. “The Political Economy of Immigration Restriction in the United States, 1890-1921.” In The Regulated Economy : A Historical Approach to Political Economy, edited by C. Goldin and G. D. Libecap. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994. [NBER version: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4345.pdf]

*Timmer, Ashley S., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. 1998. “Immigration Policy Prior to the 1930s: Labor Markets, Policy Interactions, and Globalization Backlash.”Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, No. 4. (Dec., 1998), pp. 739-771. ejournals

Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. “Globalization, Labor Markets and Policy Backlash in the Past,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 12(4), pages 51-72, Fall. ejournals

7 1820-1913: commercial policy and trade

I Heckscher-Ohlin Approaches

*O’Rourke, Kevin H., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. 2002. “When did globalisation begin?,” European Review of Economic History, vol. 6(01), pages 23-50, March. ejournals

Bairoch, P. “European Trade Policy, 1815-1914.” In The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol. 8, edited by P. Mathias and S. Pollard. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989. ®

Irwin, D. A. “Welfare Effects of British Free Trade: Debate and Evidence from the 1840s.” Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 1142-65. ejournals

*Williamson, Jeffrey G. “The Impact of the Corn Laws Just Prior to Repeal.” Explorations in Economic History 27 (April 1990): 123-56. ®

Nye, John V. C. “The Myth of Free-Trade Britain and Fortress France.” Journal of Economic History 51 (1991): 23-46. ejournals

*Irwin, Douglas A. “Free Trade and Protection in Nineteenth-Century Britain and France Revisited: A Comment on Nye.” Journal of Economic History 53 (1993): 146-53. ejournals

O’Rourke, Kevin H., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Late 19th Century Anglo-American Factor Price Convergence: Were Heckscher and Ohlin Right?” Journal of Economic History 54 (December 1994): 1-25. ejournals

*O’Rourke, Kevin H., Alan M. Taylor, and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century.” International Economic Review 37 (1996): 499—530. ejournals

*Estevadeordal, Antoni, and Alan M. Taylor. 2002. A Century of Missing Trade? American Economic Review 92 (1): 383–93. ejournals

Rogowski, Ronald. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1989. Chapters 1—2. ®

* O’Rourke, Kevin H., and Alan M. Taylor, 2006. “Democracy and Protectionism,” NBER Working Papers 12250. NBER

II Gravity Approaches

*Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. “Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era,” American Economic Review, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March. ejournals

Flandreau, Marc, and Mathilde Maurel, 2005. “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe,” Open Economies Review, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, January.

Jacks, David S., 2006. “What drove 19th century commodity market integration?,” Explorations in Economic History, vol. 43(3), pages 383-412, July. ejournals

*Jacks, David S., Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2006. “Trade Costs in the First Wave of Globalization,” NBER Working Papers 12602. NBER

*Accominotti, Olivier, and Flandreau, Marc, 2005. “Does Bilateralism Promote Trade? Nineteenth Century Liberalization Revisited,” CEPR Discussion Papers 5423, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. http://spire.sciences-po.fr/spire/bitstream/2441/670/1/cfi_wp_mf_cepr5423.pdf

*O’Rourke, Kevin H. “Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century.” Economic Journal 110 (2000): 456—83. ejournals

Jacks, David S., 2006. “New results on the tariff growth paradox,” European Review of Economic History, vol. 10(02), pages 205-230, July. ejournals

8 1820-1913: the core and the periphery

I Win-Lose from Colonialism and Empire?

O’Brien, Patrick. “European Economic Development: The Contribution of the Periphery.” Economic History Review 35 (February 1982): 1-18. ejournals

Davis, Lance E., and Robert A. Huttenback. Mammon and The Pursuit of Empire: The Economics of British Imperialism. Abridged ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993. Chapters 1 and 10. ®

*Edelstein, Michael. “Imperialism: Cost and Benefit.” In The Economic History of Britain Since 1700, vol. 2, edited by R. Floud and D. McCloskey. 2nd ed. 2 vols. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. ®

*Offer, Avner. “The British Empire, 1870-1914: A Waste of Money?” Economic History Review 46 (1993): 215-38. ejournals

*Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson. The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review 91, no. 5 (2001): 1369–96. ejournals

*Ferguson, Niall, and Moritz Schularick (2006), “The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880–1913.” Journal of Economic History 66(2), 283-312. ejournals

Ferguson, Niall. 2003. “British Imperialism Revisited: The Cost and Benefits of Anglobalization.” http://www.nyu.edu/fas/institute/dri/DRIWP/DRIWP02.pdf

*Mitchener, Kris James, and Marc Weidenmier, 2008. “Trade and Empire,” NBER Working Papers 13765. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13765

Engerman, Stanley L., and Kenneth L. Sokoloff. 1997. Factor Endowments, Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World Economies: A View from Economic Historians of the United States. In How Latin America Fell Behind: Essays on the Economic Histories of Brazil and Mexico, 1800–1914, edited by Stephen Haber. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press. http://www.nber.org/papers/h0066

Schedvin, C. B. “Staples and Regions of Pax Britannica.” Economic History Review 20 (November 1990): 533-59. ejournals

O’Rourke, Kevin H., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. 2006. “Around the European periphery 1870 1913: Globalization, schooling and growth.” European Review of Economic History, vol. 1(02), pages 153-190, September. ejournals

II Win-Lose from Globalization?

*Williamson, Jeffrey G. 2002. “Land, Labor, And Globalization In The Third World, 1870 1940,” Journal of Economic History, vol. 62(01), pages 55-85, May. ejournals

* Williamson, Jeffrey G.. 2004. “De-Industrialization and Underdevelopment: A Comparative Assessment Around the Periphery, 1750-1939.” Harvard University. http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/jwilliam/papers/DeIndEHW1204.pdf

*Krugman, Paul, and Anthony J. Venables. “Globalization and the Inequality of Nations.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995): 857—80. ejournals

Galor, Oded and Mountford, Andrew, “Trading Population for Productivity” (March 1, 2004). Brown University Working Paper No. 38-01. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=288782

* O’Rourke, Kevin H., Ahmed S. Rahman, and Alan M. Taylor. 2007. “Trade, Knowledge and the Industrial Revolution.” NBER EGE workshop, March 2007: http://www.nber.org/~confer/2007/eges07/taylor.pdf

Shiue, Carol H., and Wolfgang Keller, 2007, “Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution,” American Economic Review, vol. 97(4), pages 1189-1216, September. ejournals

9 The Interwar Period: growth, trends and fluctuations in the 1920s

Lewis, W. Arthur. Economic Survey: 1919-1939. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1949. Chs. 2 and 3. ®

*Williamson, Jeffrey G. “The Evolution of Global Labor Markets since 1830: Background Evidence and Hypotheses.” Explorations in Economic History 32 (April 1995): 141—96. ejournals

Eichengreen, B. J. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and The Great Depression, 1919-1939. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. Chapters 1 and 2. ®

10 The Interwar Period: war and its aftermath

Temin, P. Lessons from The Great Depression. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989. Lecture 1. ®

Eichengreen, Barry J. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and The Great Depression, 1919-1939. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992. Chapters 3-5. ®

*Keynes, J. M. “The Capacity of Germany to Pay Reparations.” In Essays in Persuasion. New York: W. W. Norton, 1919. http://oll.libertyfund.org/Home3/HTML.php?recordID=0550 - LF-BK0550pt01ch005

Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression, 1929-1939. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986. Ch. 2. ®

11 The Interwar Period: trade and capital flows in the 1920s

Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression, 1929-1939. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986. Chs. 3 and 4. ®

Kindleberger, Charles P. “Commercial Policy Between the Wars.” In The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol. 8, edited by P. Mathias and S. Pollard. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989. [CDL: http://content.cdlib.org/xtf/view?docId=ft287004zv&chunk.id=d0e4841&toc.depth=1&toc.id=d0e4841&brand=eschol ]

Irwin, Douglas A., and Marko Terviö, 2002. “Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century,” Journal of International Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October. ejournals

*Estevadeordal, Antoni, Brian Frantz, and Alan M. Taylor. 2003. The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870–1939. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (May): 359–407. ejournals

*Glick, Reuven, and Alan M. Taylor, 2005. “Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War,” NBER Working Papers 11565. NBER

*Taylor, Alan M. “External Dependence, Demographic Burdens and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Époque.” Journal of Economic History 52 (December 1992): 907-36. ejournals

12 The Interwar Period: the world in depression.

*Eichengreen, Barry J. “The Origins and Nature of the Great Slump Revisited.” Economic History Review 45 (May 1992): 212-239. ejournals

Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression, 1929-1939. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986. Chs. 5, 6 and 14. ®

Temin, Peter. Lessons from The Great Depression. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989. Lecture 2. ®

Díaz-Alejandro, Carlos F. “Latin America in the 1930s.” In Latin America in the 1930s: The Role of the Periphery in World Crisis, edited by R. Thorp. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1984. ®

*Eichengreen, Barry, and Jeffrey D. Sachs. “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s.” Journal of Economic History 45 (December 1985): 925-46. ejournals

*Campa, Jose Manuel. “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Latin America.” Journal of Economic History 50 (September 1990): 677-82. ejournals

Eichengreen, Barry J., and Richard Portes. “After the Deluge: Default, Negotiation, and Readjustment during the Interwar Years.” In The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective, edited by B. J. Eichengreen and P. H. Lindert. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989. ®

*della Paolera, Gerardo, and Alan M. Taylor. “Economic Recovery from the Argentine Great Depression: Institutions, Expectations, and the Change of Macroeconomic Regime.” Journal of Economic History 59 (1999): 567—99. ejournals

Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Romer, Christina D., 2006. “Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard During the Great Depression? Evidence from the 1932 Open Market Purchase Program,” Journal of Economic History, vol. 66(01), pages 140-176, March. ejournals

13 The Interwar Period: the legacy of the world depression

Lewis, W. Arthur. Economic Survey: 1919-1939. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1949. Chs. 11-13. ®

Díaz-Alejandro, Carlos F. “Delinking North and South: Unshackled or Unhinged?” In Rich and Poor Nations in the World Economy, edited by A. Fishlow, et al. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978. ®

Lal, Deepak. The Poverty of Development Economics. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985. Chs. 1 and 2. ®

Temin, Peter. Lessons from The Great Depression. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1989. Lecture 3. ®

*Taylor, Alan M. “On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in Latin America.” Journal of Economic History 58 (1998): 1—28. ejournals

*Clemens, Michael A., and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. “Why did the Tariff--Growth Correlation Change after 1950?,” Journal of Economic Growth,, vol. 9(1), pages 5-46, 03. ejournals

*Obstfeld, Maurice, Jay C. Shambaugh, and Alan M. Taylor. 2004. Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period. IMF Staff Papers 51 (Special Issue 2004): pp.75-108. ejournals

* Siegler, Mark V. and Kristin A. Van Gaasbeck. 2005. From the Great Depression to the Great Inflation: Path dependence and monetary policy, Journal of Economics and Business, Volume 57, Issue 5, September-October 2005, Pages 375-387. ejournals

14 1945 to the present: growth, technology and human capital

Crafts, N. F. R. “The Golden Age of Economic Growth in Western Europe, 1950-1973.” Economic History Review 48 (1995): 429-47. ejournals

*Dowrick, Steve, and Duc-Tho Nguyen. “OECD Comparative Economic Growth 1950-85: Catch-Up and Convergence.” American Economic Review 79 (December 1989): 1010-30. ejournals

Barro, Robert J. “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (May 1991): 407-43. ejournals

*Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David N. Weil. “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (May 1992): 407-37. ejournals

*Nelson, Richard R., and Gavin Wright. “The Rise and Fall of American Technological Leadership.” Journal of Economic Literature 30 (December 1992): 1931-64. ejournals

Jones, Charles I. “R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 103 (1995): 759-84. ejournals

Jones, Charles I. “Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995): 567-85. ejournals

*Young, Alwyn. “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1995): 641—680. ejournals

Hsieh, Chang-Tai, 2002. “What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence from the Factor Markets,” American Economic Review, vol. 92(3), pages 502-526, June. ejournals

15 1945 to the present: openness and growth

*De Long, J. B., and L. H. Summers. “Equipment Investment and Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (May 1991): 445-502. ejournals

*Edwards, S. “Openness, Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing Countries.” Journal of Economic Literature 31 (September 1993): 1358-93. ejournals

*Sachs, J. D., and A. M. Warner. “Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1995). ejournals

Jones, C. I. “Economic Growth and the Relative Price of Capital.” Journal of Monetary Economics 34 (1994): 359-82. ejournals

Mazumdar, Joy. “Do Static Gains from Trade Lead to Medium-Run Growth?” Journal of Political Economy 104 (1996): 1328—37. ejournals

Frankel, Jeffrey A., and David Romer. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89 (1999): 379—99. ejournals

*Rodriguez, Francisco, and Dani Rodrik. “Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to Cross-National Evidence.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, edited by Ben S. Bernanke and Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. ejournals

*Rodrik, Dani, Arvind Subramanian, and Francesco Trebbi, 2004. “Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165. ejournals

* Estevadeordal, Antoni, and Alan M. Taylor, “Is the Washington Consensus Dead?” Photocopy. http://www.hbs.edu/units/bgie/pdf/Taylor.pdf

16 1945 to the present: international finance

Obstfeld, Maurice, and Alan M. Taylor. “The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility in the Long Run.” In The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Claudia D. Goldin and Eugene N. White. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998. NBER

*Taylor, Alan M. 2002. “A century of current account dynamics.” Journal of International Money and Finance vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November. ejournals

*Obstfeld, Maurice, Jay C. Shambaugh, and Alan M. Taylor. 2005. “The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility.” Review of Economics and Statistics vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, December. ejournals

Lucas, R. E., Jr. “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?” American Economic Review 80 (May 1990): 92-96. ejournals

*Caselli Francesco, and James Feyrer, 2005. “The Marginal Product of Capital,” NBER Working Papers 11551. NBER

*Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. “Fixed exchange rates and trade,” Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December. ejournals

Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria. 2001. “Is the crisis problem growing more severe?” Economic Policy, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82. ejournals

*Eichengreen, Barry, and David Leblang, 2003. “Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?” International Journal of Finance & Economicsvol. 8(3), pages 205-224. ejournals

Lindert, P. H., and P. H. Morton. “How Sovereign Debt Has Worked.” In Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, edited by J. D. Sachs. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989. ®

Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel A. Savastano. “Debt Intolerance,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003, v2003(1), 1-74. ejournals

*Kapur, Sandeep, and Luis Catão, 2004. “Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox,” IMF Working Papers 04/51, International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0451.pdf

17 1945 to the present: trade and inequality

*Baier, Scott L., and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand. 2001. “The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity,” Journal of International Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. ejournals

*Freeman, R. B. “Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9 (1995): 15-32. ejournals

*Wood, A. “How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9 (1995): 57-80. ejournals

Wood, A. North-South Trade, Employment, and Inequality : Changing Fortunes in a Skill-Driven World. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994. Chapters 1, 7, 10. ®

*Trefler, D. “International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!” Journal of Political Economy 101 (1993): 961-87. ejournals

*Trefler, Daniel. “The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries.” American Economic Review 85, no. 5 (1995): 1029–46. ejournals

*Lindert, Peter H., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?” In Globalization in Historical Perspective, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor and Jeffrey G. Williamson. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002. NBER

*Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. 2002. “Growth Is Good for the Poor,” Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September. ejournals

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